round 5: decision day and managing yield

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To: Admissions Committee
From: Dean of Admissions

On Decision Day, the Admissions Committee must make offers to selected applicants in the entering class and receive their responses (with help from a random number generator). Your goal is to create the best class for The College that meets the target (entering class size = 3) and stays within the financial aid budget ($75,000), or face a 2-point penalty in your final grade. The Committee must agree on its final ratings of applicants in our shared Google Sheet before our Monday Sept 28th meeting.

When the Admissions Committee makes an offer, the applicant’s enrollment decision will be determined this random number generator (from 1 to 100) and the these odds of acceptance:

  • Regular applicants accept an offer 34% of the time. For example, a regular applicant who receives your offer of admission will enroll if the random number is between 1 and 34.
  • Financial aid awards increase the odds of enrollment by 3 percentage points for every $10k in total grant. For example, an applicant who is offered admission with a $20k financial aid grant (34+3+3=40%) will enroll if the random number falls between 1-40.
  • Legacy status, meaning the applicant is a close relative of alumni, increases the regular odds of enrollment by 20 percentage points (34+20=54%). For example, a legacy applicant who is offered admission will enroll if the random number falls between 1-54.
  • Wait list penalty: If an applicant is not offered admission in the first stage of your decisions, this decreases the odds that s/he will accept a later decision by 4 percentage points. For example, a general applicant who was placed on the waitlist (34 – 4 = 30%) will enroll if the random number falls between 1-30.
  • The calculated odds are cumulative, meaning that the effect of multiple categories (financial aid, legacy, wait list, etc.) are combined.

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